Variance In Live Poker

Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker. The thing about live poker variance is that it’s much slower and prolonged than what you’ll normally encounter in online play. With online poker, a player can swing up or down 5-10 buy ins in a single day. These types of swings are very uncommon in live poker due to the much slower. Poker Variance & Downswings 'I'm running bad,' is a phrase you will often hear poker players use to describe periods of bad luck or variance. In poker, it sometimes just feels as if the cards are.

Neil Gibson

Each week, the Talking Poker series highlights a particular poker term. We’ll give you a clear, to-the-point definition of the term and an example of the strategic concept to which it refers, so that you can start using the term and implementing the related strategy into your game. Today we’re focusing on “variance” and its strategic relevance to poker.

Definition

Sometimes broadly used as a synonym for luck, “variance” in fact more specifically refers to the statistical measure of how much results can differ from expectation. When applied to poker, the term most often refers to the relative volatilty of a particular situation, a specific game, or a style of play as reflected in the bankroll “swings” (both up and down) a player endures. E.g., “By playing many hands and employing an aggressive style, he plays a high variance game.”

Variance is not a measure of how well you play, but of how much your results can vary when compared to expectation. Variance can be favorable for you and lead to short-term success and streaks of winning, or it can be unfavorable and cause you to lose more often.

Example

Over the course of several cash game sessions a player finds himself involved in 10 preflop all-in encounters in which he holds pocket aces versus an opponent who has pocket kings. In each of those hands he and an opponent have each contributed a $100 stack to create a $200 pot.

The PokerNews Poker Odds Calculator shows that the expectation for the player holding versus is to win 82.36% of the time. He therefore expects to win about 8 out of 10 of these preflop all-ins.

However it turns out that in actuality he only wins 5 out of the 10. His expectation had been to earn about an $600 profit in these 10 hands (after winning 8 and losing 2), but in reality he endured unfavorable variance and only broke even.

Strategic Considerations

As suggested by the example of the player losing 5 out of 10 times with pocket aces versus pocket kings, one important strategic consideration when it comes to variance is to be mentally prepared for unfavorable outcomes. All poker players have experienced losing a hand — or many hands — after being favored to win. Being able to accept these negative outcomes and continue to play well is crucial to long-term success.

Other strategic considerations stem from the different conditions that can cause an increase in variance. For example, being able to recognize and respond correctly to high variance situations can increase your chance of success.

As noted above, certain playing styles can be higher variance than others. Someone with a loose-aggressive style plays hands more frequently than the average player, and when playing those hands will more often bet or raise (be aggressive) than call or check (be https://www.pokernews.com/pokerterms/passive.htm). That style can result in a higher variance for that player given that he likely will be vying for more pots — and often bigger pots — than will those who aren’t as loose or aggressive.

Variance In Live Poker Odds

You might find yourself in an especially loose game in which many players are calling raises, seeing flops, and taking risks. Such a game will also likely produce higher variance than would occur in games with tighter players.

Variance In Live Poker Tournaments

Variance In Live Poker

Certain poker variants are known to produce higher variance than others as well — e.g., pot-limit Omaha is a game that can feature high variance resulting in wide bankroll swings for those who play it. Tournaments with fast structures such as the turbo tournaments discussed last week can also frequently produce high variance situations as shallow stacks force players into more preflop all-in situations than occur in slower-structured, deep-stacked events.

In fact, tournaments in general are often described as higher variance than cash games, generally speaking, although both playing style and relative skill obviously matters in both.

Watch and Learn

With the 2015 World Series of Poker just days away from starting, thousands will be participating in the many low buy-in events on the schedule such as the $565 Colossus (Event #5) that begins this Friday.

Variance In Live Poker Deuces Wild

A couple of summers ago Kristy Arnett spoke with poker pro Adam Levy about strategy for low buy-in WSOP events, and he noted in particular how “you don’t need to take some super high variance route” to succeed in these events.

As Levy explains, being able to recognize how stack sizes and structures allow players to be patient even in these low buy-in WSOP events can help them avoid taking unneeded risks — something even more relevant this year given the deeper starting stacks in these tournaments. Take a look:

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Variance In Live Poker Games

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What is variance? While we could go into the mathematical details we will explain variance on video poker machines using real world examples. Variance is one of the characteristics that makes a big difference in the short term results between one game and another. Lets compare two popular machines.
Below you have the pay tables for both full pay Jacks or Better (9/6) and a popular variety of Double Double Bonus (40/10/6). We picked these games for the example as both have a total return in the 99% range and compared side by side make a good example of variance in the real world.
Full Pay Jacks or Better (9/6)
Dbl Dbl Bonus (40/10/6)
Hand PayoutReturn % Hand PayoutReturn %
Royal Flush40001.98%Royal Flush40001.95%
Straight Flush2500.55%Straight Flush 2000.44%
Four of a Kind 1255.91%Four Aces +2-4 20002.46%
Full House 4510.36%Four Aces 8002.78%
Flush 306.61%Four 2-4 + A-4 8002.29%
Straight204.49%Four 2 - 4 4003.08%
Three of a Kind 1522.33%Four 5 - K 2508.16%
Two Pair 1025.86%Full House 5010.86%
Jacks or Better 521.46%Flush306.77%
Straight205.11%
Three of a Kind 1522.59%
Two Pair 512.31%
Jacks or Better 521.16%
Total Return99.5439%Total Return 99.9577%
Variance19.51468Variance41.96707

Variance Explained

You will notice at the bottom of each pay table we have listed the variance. The first machine shows 19.51468 and the second is over double at 41.96707. The biggest difference when you compare the pays are the four of a kind wins. On the Jacks or Better machine they make up 5.91% of the total return while on the Double Double Bonus machine they make up 18.77% of the total return.
You will also notice that on the Double Double Bonus machine the pay for two pair makes up 12.31% of the total while on the Jacks or Better the same pay contributes 25.86% to the overall percentage. It is these changes in the way that pays contribute to the overall pay outs that alter the variance.
Let's say you play 1,000 hands on both of the machines above and do not hit a royal flush or any four of a kinds. At the end of the thousand hands it is more likely that you will still have a good amount of credits left if you were playing the Jacks or Better machine compared to the Double Double Bonus. This is because one of the more common hands, the two pairs pay is a win on Jacks or Better while it is simply your bet back on the second game.
Comparing the two games you will find that the first game will offer a longer run of smaller pays that keep you going while the second machine will be much harder on your bankroll if you do not hit any of the four of a kind ands. This difference is what variance is all about.
The question then comes to mind - Which machine should I play? In the example above the Double Double Bonus would be a better bet over the long term simply because it has a higher overall pay back. But in the short term you have to ask yourself, do you want regular small wins that keep you playing or do you want to have fewer small wins but the chance at the occasional big hit. This is a personal choice so there is no right or wrong answer - it is totally up to you.

Popular Games Compared

Below is a table showing the variance for several popular video poker machine types. This further illustrates the points made above. Note that the higher the number the higher the variance.
GameVarianceGameVariance
Pick'em Poker 15.0055 All American 26.7998
Jacks or Better 19.5146Double Bonus 28.2555
Bonus Poker 20.9040Double Double Bonus 41.9849
Aces & Eights 21.7259 Deuces & Joker 45.5885
Deuces Wild 25.8346Loose Deuces 70.3054
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